Meanwhile, whether or not Musk’s £80m donation to Reform happens, it should be a spur for government action, says Duncan Hames, director of policy and programmes at Transparency International UK. “The UK government should use this moment to introduce meaningful political donation caps to stop the corrosive effect of big money buying influence and curtail foreign influence in UK elections,” says Hames. “Ensuring strong democratic institutions and maintaining respect for the rule of law is essential to restoring trust in politics regardless of who is in power.”
Climate
Trump’s election victory was branded a major blow for global climate action, a return to power for a climate sceptic president who withdrew from the Paris Agreement and called green energy efforts a “scam”.
Within the UK, it could bring a more polarised debate on climate action and pose a serious test for Keir Starmer’s government.
“Climate change has been pulled into a polarised “culture war” debate in the US, where political identity has become highly related to views on the issue – something we’ve avoided in the UK to date, given the broad consensus across the two main parties,” says Bobby Duffy, professor of public policy and director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London.
“But there are still divides, and we’re only likely to see these given more prominence by Reform, particularly with the increasingly vocal support from key US figures linked to Donald Trump’s incoming administration.”
Combined with explicit pressure from Trump – who has already called Labour’s shift away from North Sea oil and gas a “very big mistake” – this shift could ramp up pressure on Labour.
“It gives the opponents of climate policy in the UK a new angle to attack the government,” says Chris Aylett, a research associate at Chatham House’s environment and society centre. Complaints couched in concern for the countryside can now be put forward out of concern for alienating an ally, he says.
“It’s going to be a huge test of the political courage of the new government,” Aylett adds
Economy
Trump is unpredictable, which makes his economic policy hard to judge, says University of the West of England professor of economics Jo Michell. On one end, we may see huge tariffs, a trade war with the US’s allies, and mass deportations. The other end may see something closer to classic Republican policy: tax cuts and deregulation, with symbolic action around tariffs.
“One of the few things that economists do agree about is that trade wars have no winners,” says Michell. “If he goes for the extreme version, which he has been talking about on the campaign trail, it will hit the world economy hard. It will generate higher inflation, and that means that central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer.”
Trade wars would mean the quality of products falling while prices rise. Brexit could provide some opportunity, with the UK no longer being part of a customs union. “It is quite possible that the UK could be singled out for special treatment and avoid tariffs. And so in that sense, there is a potential upside to Brexit,” says Michell.
The incoming president also wants Nato members – including the UK – to boost defence spending to 5% of GDP, far exceeding Labour’s current 2.5% target. This will make life harder for a government already raising taxes and cutting spending, with defence spending also having fewer positive “spillover” effects than areas such as infrastructure. “To a stronger extent it has to come at the expense of other things. So it either has to come at the expense of other government spending, or has to come with higher taxes or higher borrowing,” says Michell.
Refugee rights
“Another Trump presidency will have global repercussions for migrant rights. Trump and his allies use classic far-right tactics to scapegoat migrants and their language has emboldened extremist groups in the UK,” says Ravishaan Rahel Muthiah, director of communications at the Joint Centre for the Welfare of Immigrants.
“Instead of challenging this hateful rhetoric, Keir Starmer recently described the previous government, during which hundreds of people died crossing the Channel, as running an ‘open borders experiment.’ This kind of hyperbole appeases the far-right while our clients deal with the terrifying real-life consequences of increased hatred towards minorities and people of colour.”
Obsession
One thing is for sure, say experts: Trump’s return is unlikely to dull the UK’s obsession with American politics.
“Once again, what he and those around him say is going to take up a lot of space in our public sphere,” says Peter Allen, professor of politics at the University of Bath. “It’s difficult to say that this has a direct negative effect on, say, policy discussion or development in the UK, but it is more difficult to see it as a positive or as anything other than an undesirable addition to British public life.”
Adds Philip Cowley, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London: “I don’t mean that we shouldn’t be interested in it. But news organisations cover the minutiae of politics in the US obsessively – if, often, quite poorly – while ignoring developments in, say, France. The lack of coverage of Ireland, especially, is remarkable.”
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