Scottish whisky and salmon exporters brace for ‘significant hit’ from Trump’s tariff war

Scottish whisky and salmon exporters are “bracing themselves” for the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs. 

The United States is a huge market for the two iconic commodities. But Trump’s 10% ‘liberation day’ tax on all imports – which took effect 5 April – will put local businesses in a tricky position. 

“Well obviously no tariff is good news,” William Wemyss, founder of Kingsbarns Distillery in St Andrews, told Big Issue. “Our margins will be more under pressure.

“It’s going to be harder to achieve growth into a simple level… the impact depends on whether we pass that onto the American consumer effectively or whether we assume the price increases ourselves, or somewhere in the middle.”

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America is the largest export market by value for Scotch whisky; in 2024, the country was worth £971m to the industry. The Scotch Whisky Association said it was “disappointed” by the Tariff announcement and welcomed the government’s efforts to secure a “mutually beneficial” resolution. 

Prime minister Keir Starmer has been lobbying for a reduction on the 10% tariff rate, which could wipe billions of the UK’s growth projections and decimate chancellor Rachel Reeves’ so-called “fiscal headroom”.

What are the current tariffs?

Trump has previously said ‘tariff’ – which refers to an import tax on foreign goods – is his “favourite word”. 

On 2 April, he announced ‘liberation day’ tariffs ranging from 10% – the “minimum baseline” rate – to 54%. Last week, he announced an 11th hour ‘pause’, authorising a universal “lowered reciprocal tariff of 10%”. 

China was excluded from this reduction; instead, Trump hiked taxes on the country to 125%. Xi Jingping responded in kind, hiking import taxes on US goods and stoking fears of an all-out trade war.

Taxing imports, Trump claims, will protect domestic industries. But not all products can be brought in domestically. 

“They want to bring manufacturing back to the US but they can’t manufacture Scotch whisky in the US because it has to be distilled in Scotland and aged in Scotland,” Wemyss points out. “So it’s not like we’re about to set up a Scotch whisky distillery somewhere in the US, that is not possible.”

Such levies can also mean higher prices for consumers, because importers pass on expenses to customers. US importers would pay the new whisky tax, not UK exporters – but by making our whisky pricier, the tariffs make them less competitive. 

It is not the first time that Trump has slapped import taxes on the iconic product. In 2019, the US added tariffs to Scotch whisky as retaliation against EU subsidies for Airbus, a European aerospace corporation. These subsidies made it harder for Boeing – an American company – to secure international contracts. Trump set a retaliatory tariff on Scotch whisky at 25%, a policy later rescinded by president Joe Biden.

But the levy had a significant effect. Exports of Scotch to the US dropped sharply, with a reported decline of more than 30% in value during year that followed. Many smaller distillers were hit hardest, facing reduced sales and disrupted supply chains.

“In 2019, when the last set of tariffs were put on the industry, they were 25% for all single malt whisky,” Wemyss says. “This time it’s 10%, but it catches not just whisky but everything else, too. That’s a significant hit. But we will keep persevering with that market.”

Scottish salmon producers are also facing uncertainty. 

In 2024, exports of salmon to the US were valued at £225m, a 61% increase on the previous year. The US now accounts for more than a quarter of all UK salmon exports, both by value and volume – it is the industry’s second largest national market.

Tavish Scott, chief executive of Salmon Scotland, was measured: “Salmon producers want a business-like and stable trade relationship with the US, so we support the UK government’s efforts to achieve that outcome through a calm and measured approach.” 

The salmon industry is a key pillar of the Scottish economy, contributing over £760m annually and supporting thousands of jobs.

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