These are the UK regions set to be hit hardest by Trump’s tariffs

Donald Trump’s 10% tariffs on UK exports will hit hardest in parts of the UK outside of London – in regions “already vulnerable” to economic shocks. 

The world economy is reeling from the US president’s suite of ‘liberation day’ tariffs, a set of punitive import levies that have sent markets tumbling.

Britain received the lowest tax rate doled out by the president on Wednesday (2 April), but is also subject to 25% taxes on car imports, steel and aluminium. 

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It will still have a serious impact on UK businesses, which export more than £60bn in goods to the US annually.

According to new analysis by the Centre for Local Economic Strategies (CLES), the West Midlands, East of England and Northern Ireland – regions most reliant on exports to the US – are expected to bear the brunt of the trade restrictions.

In the West Midlands the estimated fall in export value is expected to be more than £330m per year, based on 2024 figures. It is the number one exporting region of cars to the US, hence the disproportionate figures.

In the East of England, an area which exports significant goods from the pharmaceuticals, life sciences, aerospace and defence sectors, the fall is likely to be nearly £240m per year. 

It’s bad news for Northern Ireland, too. The value of lost exports in Northern Ireland is expected to be £79 million – adjusted for population, that’s £40 per person, per year. In London, meanwhile, the estimated fall in export value is estimated at £220m per year, or a little more than £25 per person.

Using Bank of England estimates for price elasticity, the average fall in UK exports to the US is estimated at around 4% if tariffs are imposed at the planned level of 10%. 

“These tariffs, and the associated supply chain effects, will have a real impact on businesses and jobs in parts of the UK which are already highly vulnerable to economic shocks” said Julian Boys, associate director of economic strategy at CLES. 

“For regions where the US is a key trade partner, the fallout in terms of investment and employment could be serious.”

The specific impact will depend on the composition of goods exported, fluctuations in currency exchange rates, and shifts in US consumer purchasing power. But it’s not looking good. 

The government was already facing a grim economic outlook, with stagnating growth putting pressure on the public finances. In light of these bleak projections, the chancellor decided to cut £4.8bn from disability benefits and scale back public spending. 

However, Trump’s tariffs risk wiping out these hard-won savings, which experts warn come at a steep cost to millions of vulnerable citizens. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, GDP could shrink by 0.6% this year and by 1% next year if the government responds with retaliatory measures.

From Beijing to Brussels, world leaders have pledged retaliatory taxes. The IPPR told Big Issue that a global trade war is looking “increasingly inevitable”. 

The government is “not ruling anything out”, Keir Starmer said on Thursday (3 April), even as it seeks carve-outs from the US government. 

“Our intention remains to secure a deal,” he said. “But nothing is off the table.”

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