It is always a mistake to try and predict national elections based on the results of local elections, people vote for often differing reasons. There are some lessons which can be learned from the gains which Reform made during the local elections, and lessons which Labour urgently needs to pay attention to.
Rarely does the line “vote for us or the other ones will get in” resonate with the majority of voters. Most people don’t have strong political leanings, even fewer are members of political parties. They vote on things which they see making a positive difference in their lives. People want to be able to go to shops and see that they can afford what they need to buy. They don’t want to be scared that the next bill coming through the door will break their bank accounts.
- Why does everyone keep getting the white working class wrong?
- Brits don’t trust politicians. Could a Welsh plan to ban lying in politics help turn that around?
- Germany’s extreme right profited from economic decline. Keir Starmer should take note
In some ways Labour is trying to address this, on paper at least, but the results are yet to be seen. Part of the problem they face is that these practical measures aren’t exactly headline grabbing. Instead, they are drowned out by repeated, negative, rhetoric about immigration, trans and non-binary individual etc, things which on a day-to-day basis most people don’t really care about, and they don’t.
Don’t knows/don’t cares are the single biggest group among polling often. They are also the quietest. Just people going about their lives, worrying about how they will pay the rent or the future of their families. For many, they don’t see a difference in their lives based on who is in power. Disinterest and apathy in politics is growing at a significant rate, and that means that people become less inclined to bother voting.
By chasing Reform voters, Labour doesn’t gain votes. Those who vote because they actively support measures against marginalised groups aren’t going to vote for a party which they still consider to be “too left”, but they do put people off voting in general, and in particular put people off who may have previously supported them on the basis of ‘progressive politics’.
None of this is the fault of voters. It is the fault of politicians to make a positive argument for how their lives will be improved. Reform is, unfortunately, actually pretty good at this. They are the ink blot test of British politics, as populist parties around the world tend to be. They don’t have to offer genuine solutions; they just need to talk to people and let them project their own opinions onto them. That is hard to counter.
