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Employment

Job market ‘cooling’ to pre-pandemic levels, experts say, as unemployment slowly falls

The UK’s unemployment rate has fallen slightly while wage growth has hit a two-year low, official figures show. 

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found UK unemployment was 4.2% in the three months to the end of June 2024, down from 4.4% over the previous quarter. The employment rate (for people aged between 16 and 64) was estimated at 74.5% in April to June, which has increased in the last quarter, but below levels of the same time last year.

The figures also found that wage growth is continuing to slow, rising at an annual rate of 5.4%, the lowest in two years. For June 2024, the ONS estimated that average weekly earnings in the UK were £690.

It was also estimated that 100,000 working days were lost in June 2024 due to labour disputes across the UK.

The ONS explained that despite the unemployment rate falling slightly, there had been signs that the UK’s job market is “cooling”, with the number of job vacancies falling across the country.

“Basic pay growth, while remaining relatively strong, continues to slow. Growth in total pay slowed markedly, with last year’s one-off NHS bonuses affecting the comparison,” ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said.

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McKeown explained that while there was a “modest increase” in the number of people in employment, the “medium-term picture remains somewhat subdued, with the employment rate still lower than a year ago and the growth rate in the number of payrolled employees having slowed over the year.”

“The number of job vacancies continues to decline, although the total number remains above pre-pandemic levels,” she explained.

Explaining the figures in more detail, Max Mosley, senior economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said on Twitter/X that “many challenges remain under the surface” in the UK’s job market.

“Even adjusted for inflation wage growth has defied expectations and remained strong. As a result, workers will be experiencing a rare but welcome improvement in their standard of living. The latest growth in wages has come more from areas in Scotland,” Mosley explained.

“While many things in the labour market have changed since the pandemic, inactivity due to ill-health has been a consistent issue… This will likely remain the case while NHS waiting lists remain high.

“Overall the labour market continues to cool with falling vacancies and hiring activity slowing down to pre-pandemic levels. But average hours worked are less than they were before, suggesting many of these vacancies are being filled with more part-time roles.”

Experts have explained that despite the slight fall in unemployment, there is still work for the government to do in addressing “economic inactivity”, while ensuring there are no “barriers in the way of getting jobs for those who really need them”.

Neil Carberry, chief executive at the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, told the Big Issue: “Today’s data reflects the cooling market recruiters reported in the spring – though there are clear positive signals in things such as the upswing in temporary work. Vacancies have now normalised towards their pre-pandemic norm and cooling pay growth justifies the Bank of England’s recent interest rate decision.

“It is very clear where the challenge lies in our jobs market. Employment rates are still well below pre-pandemic levels and economic inactivity is way too high.

“It is essential that the new government works with businesses to address this – and makes sure its plans for workplace regulation don’t put barriers in the way of getting jobs for those who really need them.”

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