Polarisation and a test for Starmer: How Trump 2.0 will pose a major climate challenge for the UK

Donald Trump’s return to the White House will be a test of the UK government’s courage on climate action, with a potential shift to a US-style polarised debate on the environment, experts have warned.

Trump’s election victory was branded a major blow for global climate action, a return to power for a climate sceptic president who withdrew from the Paris Agreement on climate change and called green energy efforts a “scam”.

Preparing to shuffle off the stage, outgoing president Joe Biden committed the US to a 61% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. However, Trump’s return to office could see the US leave the Paris Agreement within a year and is likely to bring renewed oil and gas drilling . Yet his inauguration could also have a seismic impact on this side of the Atlantic.

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More than half of Brits (52%) believe climate change is one of the most important issues facing their country, compared to 39% of Americans, according to a study from academics at King’s College London. In America, this is deeply split down party lines, with two-thirds of Democrats seeing it as a top issue, but only 15% of Republicans. Support in the UK remains stable, with one exception: Reform voters, 44% of whom think the threat of climate change is exaggerated.

“Climate change has been pulled into a polarised ‘culture war’ debate in the US, where political identity has become highly related to views on the issue – something we’ve avoided in the UK to date, given the broad consensus across the two main parties,” says Bobby Duffy, professor of public policy and director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London.

“But there are still divides, and we’re only likely to see these given more prominence by Reform, particularly with the increasingly vocal support from key US figures linked to Donald Trump’s incoming administration.”

Combined with explicit pressure from Donald Trump – who has already called Labour’s shift away from North Sea oil and gas a “very big mistake” – this shift could ramp up pressure on Labour. Keir Starmer has already proved himself willing to jettison key climate measures, with a high-profile U-turn on a promise to invest £28bin in green projects every year.

“Having Trump in the White House basically makes an already desperate climate situation worse,” says Chris Aylett, a research associate at Chatham House’s environment and society centre. Trump’s opposition to wind power is long-standing, potentially dating back to concerns over his ocean-side Scottish golf course, says Aylett, and his 2017 appointment of Rex Tillerson saw an oil executive elevated to secretary of state.

“It gives the opponents of climate policy in the UK a new angle to attack the government,” Complaints couched in concern for the countryside can now be put forward out of concern for alienating an ally, Aylett says.

“It’s going to be a huge test of the political courage of the new government. They’ve got a huge Commons majority but they’ve had plummeting support from the public – this is a good test to see if they’re going to pursue what they said they’d pursue, while they’ve got an American president piling pressure on what is already a difficult task,” says Aylett. “What’s going to be interesting to see is whether Ed Miliband survives in his role.”

Trump’s influence should also push the UK to have a louder voice internationally, said Alethea Warrington, head of energy, heat, and aviation at climate charity Possible.

“The changing international political environment also makes it even more vital for the new UK government to continue to step up to play a leading role in international climate discussions, and prevent Trump from harming the international consensus on decarbonisation that’s essential if we are to achieve a safer future for all of us.”

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