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Housing

Refugee homelessness set to surge once more as asylum backlog falls, experts warn

Big Issue reporting found the number of new asylum seekers facing homelessness after being granted refugee status tripled in 2023 as the Home Office changed rules to cut the asylum backlog. Now the surge could happen again, according to IPPR

Councils could be facing a new surge of refugees facing homelessness, a think tank has warned, as the Home Office cuts the asylum backlog.

The Institute of Public Policy Research’s analysis of Home Office figures found around 4,000 to 6,000 households have been owed homelessness support after leaving asylum accommodation in recent months.

The initial asylum backlog fell by more than half between the end of March 2025 and March 2026 as asylum decision-making has increased. The Labour government has pledged to end the use of asylum hotels by 2029 and the number of people housed in hotels dropped by a third between the end of 2025 and the end of March this year.

The scenario risks repeating a surge in households presenting as homeless to local authorities.

Big Issue sounded the alarm back in 2023 when we revealed that the number of refugees becoming homeless almost tripled that autumn.

IPPR said homelessness cases linked to leaving asylum accommodation more than doubled in a single quarter in late 2023, rising from 3,450 in July to September to 7,160 in October to December.

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Amreen Qureshi, research fellow at IPPR, said: “Reducing the asylum backlog matters – faster decisions mean fewer people are left waiting in limbo. But a positive asylum decision should not leave someone with nowhere to go.  

“This is not just a housing problem or an immigration problem, it is a gap between systems. The Home Office controls when asylum accommodation ends, but councils are left dealing with the consequences when move-on support fails. 



“If ministers are serious about preventing homelessness, they need to make sure decisions in the asylum system are planned with housing impacts in mind. That means sufficient notice for individuals and councils, better coordination across government, and practical support before people reach crisis point.”

Asylum hotels have proven controversial with ministers under pressure to stop using them to housing asylum seekers.

In response, the Home Office has been increasing the pace at which asylum seekers are granted decisions on whether or not they can attain refugee status.

But people who are granted refugee status are often given a short time to find somewhere else to live when they are evicted from asylum accommodation.

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That often means they are left with little option but to seek help for homelessness from their local council at a time when local authorities are already under pressure.

Drawing on interviews with migrants, refugees and people seeking asylum across London, the North West, Yorkshire and Humber, and the West Midlands, IPPR highlighted how gaps in the asylum and immigration systems can push people into destitution.

Participants described becoming homeless immediately after leaving asylum accommodation, being locked out of support because of complex rules, and facing ongoing housing insecurity driven by insecure work, domestic abuse and long routes to settlement. 

IPPR has called for a ‘safe move-on guarantee’ to prevent people falling between the gaps between the asylum system and the homelessness system.

That would include a full 42 days’ notice from the point someone is formally told to leave asylum accommodation, rather than an earlier point in the process.

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The think tank said the timeframe should be kept under review to ensure it is working to prevent homelessness.

The 2023 surge in homelessness from asylum accommodation came after the Home Office halved the notice period from 56 to 28 days.

The current notice period is 42 days, as of March this year. The Home Office did trial a 56-day period through 2025. Refugee Council’s analysis of the pilot found it prevented an estimated 1,000 refugee families from experiencing homelessness.

Newly released Home Office analysis of the 56-day move-on pilot, carried out by the National Centre for Social Research, showed the longer period for refugees to find somewhere to live decreased the risk of homelessness and offered better value for money for the taxpayer.

The evaluation recommended extending the move-on period, including considering an even longer move-on period for single adults, as well as addressing housing shortages.

Imran Hussain, director of external affairs at the Refugee Council, told Big Issue IPPR’s findings reflect what he is seeing in frontline services.

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“When someone seeking asylum here is granted refugee status, the clock starts ticking towards them being evicted from their accommodation,” said Hussain.

“Refugees are pushed into destitution and homelessness by a lack of support, right when they should be able to finally start rebuilding their lives in safety.

“With a longer period of 56 days for people to move on, significantly fewer refugees faced homelessness, easing pressure on overstretched local authorities. But even with more time, many people still struggle to find work and housing on their own, often navigating a complex system with limited English language skills.

“The government provides better support for those entering the country on agreed resettlement programmes. They must learn from these findings to ensure that refugees get all their documentation at the start of the move-on period and that every refugee is properly supported to integrate into new communities and start contributing to the UK.”

As well as the notice period, IPPR recommended the Home Office should consider extensions of support where someone would otherwise be street homeless and use standardising data-sharing with councils to prevent homelessness before crisis point.

Specialist immigration and welfare advisers should also be embedded in homelessness services and there should be a new ‘homelessness test’ for Home Office policy changes, so ministers assess whether asylum and immigration reforms will increase homelessness before they are introduced.

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The Home Office has been approached for comment.

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