Prison crisis: Early release scheme could see hundreds of prisoners released into homelessness

Emergency measures to prevent prisons in England and Wales from reaching capacity by releasing prisoners early could see at least 800 offenders released into homelessness, the Big Issue has learned.

Justice secretary Shabana Mahmood announced prisoners will be released after serving 40% rather than 50% of their sentences after occupation rates in male prisons topped 99% for the majority of the last 18 months.

• Fixing prison overcrowding may not be a vote-winner – but it’s essential to keep people safe
• Academics put trackers on homeless people – what they learned could be a ‘game-changer’

The early release measures, which will exclude prisoners with sentences of four years or more for serious violent offences and sexual offences, could see as many as 5,500 prisoners released early in the next few months, according to Prison Officers Association chair Mark Fairhurst.

Analysis of official Ministry of Justice figures from social justice charity Nacro, found around one in seven people released from prison end up homeless, meaning around 785 prisoners could be at risk of homelessness through the early release scheme.

“We welcome the focus that the new government has put on this issue straightaway. There really is a crisis in prisons and it is, in reality, a failure of public policy that we’ve gotten to this stage,” said Helen Berresford, Nacro’s director of external engagement.

“We certainly saw and heard in the early release schemes that some releases were very last minute. Some people were told they were being released on the day and released without anywhere else to go, but also released without the support around them.

“Some of the support services didn’t know people were being released until they had been released so weren’t able to do any of the things that might have helped that support around them. 

“Obviously having somewhere safe and secure to live reduces the risk of reoffending significantly. It’s not just about having a home, it’s about having a base where you can get access to all the other things you need.”

Why are prisoners being released early?

The new government has pointed the finger at the Conservatives’ management of the criminal justice system for the current state of prisons in England and Wales.

Ministry of Justice figures show there were 708 places remaining in adult male prisons earlier this month.

The average occupation rate has been higher than 99% for 60 out of 69 weeks since the start of 2023 with the number of prisoners growing by around 60 per week on average.

At one point in October last year, there were just 244 vacancies with male prisons 99.71% full.

The previous government launched the end of custody supervised licence scheme at that point to allow prisoners to be released up to 18 days early before expanding it to 60 days before the end of their sentence.

Justice secretary Mahmood said the government plans to recruit 1,000 probation officers to prevent released prisoners from ending up back inside.

“Our prisons are at the point of collapse, there is no other way of putting it,” said Mahmood. “What is worse, the previous government knew this was going to happen. The male prison estate is now running at over 99% capacity. It has been around that level for 18 months.

“If we fail to act now then we face the collapse of the criminal justice system.”

All the frontline organisations the Big Issue spoke to accepted that there is currently no alternative but to release prisoners early.

But there was fear that the scheme could see rising homelessness, leading to more people reoffending.

Offenders with stable accommodation are 50% more likely not to commit crimes and that cuts down the annual £18bn bill from reoffending, according to analysis from the Ministry of Justice published last year. 

But more than 6,000 people released from prison in 2022-23 ended up sleeping rough.

Prisoners who are released into homelessness are also more likely to die. A report from the Prisons and Probation Ombudsman found 32% of the prisoners who died within two weeks of being released between 2021 and 2023 were homeless.

Anne Fox, the chief executive of criminal justice charity Clinks, said the voluntary sector will have to step in to help the under-pressure probation service to prevent homelessness.

“In these increasingly challenging times, difficult decisions will have to be taken,” said Fox.

“However, the success of these decisions rests on the government working

together with the voluntary sector, to help get people in contact with the criminal justice system the support they need.

“There will be a significant number of people released as a result of these measures and it is therefore vital that services run by the state and by voluntary organisations have enough resources to give people the support they need.”

Changing Lives, a UK-based charity focused on transforming the lives of vulnerable people, also had concerns about the probation system’s ability to cope. 

The situation could exacerbate the existing lack of suitable gender-informed accommodation for women, leaving them at risk of abuse and exploitation and a rise in survival sex and ‘sex for rent’ arrangements.

Sarah Clarke, service manager for sex work and sexual exploitation at Changing Lives’ Red Umbrella project, said: “Many women we work with are currently released from custody with no accommodation or are placed in mixed-sex accommodation.

“This leaves them open to exploitation from organised crime groups who sexually and/or criminally exploit them, often resulting in their return to custody with further criminal charges. Through our work, we have seen an increase in women advertising sex online to survive.”

While the current government strategy may be unavoidable, ministers must now turn their attention to the long-term with a plan to prevent the criminal justice system from buckling under the weight of demand.

While more investment in prisons and prison places may be necessary, so is an alternative to locking people up in the first place.

Frontline groups said the current crisis shows the need for community sentencing and a greater focus on rehabilitation. 

Darren Nicholas, assistant director for criminal justice services at the social justice charity Cranstoun, said: “We believe there are many people in prison for whom alternative forms of justice would be more appropriate, the careful consideration particularly around domestic abuse is essential when determining who is eligible for early release.

“Cranstoun firmly believes that a whole-society approach is fundamental to addressing the escalating prison population numbers, with an upstream approach in education, diversion and behaviour-change work to reduce offending and reoffending alongside a reduction in sentencing for low-risk crimes.”

Nacro’s Berresford added: “Emergency measures are needed to respond to the crisis. But there are more things we can do and we would definitely urge the government to set out a longer-term strategy for an effective and sustainable criminal justice system which serves us all.

“We have to have a justice system that serves us all and puts victims at the heart and which focuses on rehabilitation.

“One of the things the government can do is look at the people who go into prison on short prison sentences. High numbers go in and out each year but all the evidence actually shows that serving sentences in the community instead will be more effective and reduce the risk of reoffending more than sending them to prison.”

Do you have a story to tell or opinions to share about this? Get in touch and tell us more. Big Issue exists to give homeless and marginalised people the opportunity to earn an income. To support our work buy a copy of the magazine or get the app from the App Store or Google Play.